Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $835,662$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,031,221.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 151.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,031,221.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,009$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,659.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.9)}}\) (asimptote \(35,659.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $74,437$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $137,969$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{141,844.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.0)}}\) (asimptote \(141,844.7\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,228$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,408.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 151.0)}}\) (asimptote \(10,408.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,929$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,028,444$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,298,499.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,298,499.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $148,957$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{151,972.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 117.3)}}\) (asimptote \(151,972.4\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $391,395$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $476,016$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{437,772.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 106.3)}}\) (asimptote \(437,772.1\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,167$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,333.6}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 106.4)}}\) (asimptote \(12,333.6\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,139$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $145,045$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{164,286.4}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 135.6)}}\) (asimptote \(164,286.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,141$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,037.1}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 229.9)}}\) (asimptote \(29,037.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,393$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $886,179$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{945,199.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 155.3)}}\) (asimptote \(945,199.2\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,180$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,273.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 142.8)}}\) (asimptote \(29,273.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $85,026$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $856,369$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,294,448.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 189.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,294,448.2\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $22,710$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{445,915.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 305.8)}}\) (asimptote \(445,915.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $148,815$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,004$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,154.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,154.9\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $106$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 145.8)}}\) (asimptote \(125.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $104$ on 2020-10-08