Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in South America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Peru
  • Bolivia
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Ecuador
  • Colombia
  • Argentina
  • Suriname
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Venezuela

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $835,662$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,031,221.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 151.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,031,221.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,009$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,659.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.9)}}\) (asimptote \(35,659.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $74,437$ on 2020-10-08

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $137,969$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{141,844.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.0)}}\) (asimptote \(141,844.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,228$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,408.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 151.0)}}\) (asimptote \(10,408.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,929$ on 2020-10-08

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,028,444$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,298,499.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,298,499.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $148,957$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{151,972.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 117.3)}}\) (asimptote \(151,972.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $391,395$ on 2020-10-08

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $476,016$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{437,772.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 106.3)}}\) (asimptote \(437,772.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,167$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,333.6}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 106.4)}}\) (asimptote \(12,333.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,139$ on 2020-10-08

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $145,045$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{164,286.4}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 135.6)}}\) (asimptote \(164,286.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,141$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,037.1}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 229.9)}}\) (asimptote \(29,037.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,393$ on 2020-10-08

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $886,179$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{945,199.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 155.3)}}\) (asimptote \(945,199.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,180$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,273.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 142.8)}}\) (asimptote \(29,273.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $85,026$ on 2020-10-08

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $856,369$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,294,448.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 189.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,294,448.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $22,710$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{445,915.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 305.8)}}\) (asimptote \(445,915.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $148,815$ on 2020-10-08

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,004$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,154.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,154.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $106$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 145.8)}}\) (asimptote \(125.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $104$ on 2020-10-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Peru recovered 56%
Bolivia recovered 51%
Venezuela recovered 33%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $81,019$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,615.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 168.4)}}\) (asimptote \(95,615.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $678$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{852.1}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 159.7)}}\) (asimptote \(852.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,145$ on 2020-10-08